Will JD Vance clap 100 times or more during the State of the Union?

Condition 0x85ffb3bc...
-0.3 weak
Yes 0.1¢
No 99.9¢
24h move -38.9%
Conviction 99.6
Realized Vol 0.0%
Trend Strength -0.1
Range Width 0.0%
Liquidity Quality 100.0
Reversion Risk 100.0

Price Structure

25¢50¢75¢100¢No price data available

Signals

  • 1. Consensus pricing is strong (one-sided probability).
  • 2. Positioning appears stretched versus recent range.
Volume (24h) $127K
Total Volume $167K
Liquidity $13.6K
Spread +0.1%
Best Bid 0.1¢
Best Ask 0.2¢

Market Description

This market will resolve to the number of times JD Vance stands and claps during Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address, scheduled for February 24, 2026. Only instances in which JD Vance clearly stands up and visibly claps his hands together will qualify. Applause while seated will NOT count. Standing without clapping will NOT count. Clapping while partially rising but not fully standing will NOT count. Each discrete standing instance will count as one occurrence, regardless of the duration of the applause during that standing period. If JD Vance sits down and later stands again to clap, this will count as a new occurrence. Only clapping that occurs between the moment Donald Trump reaches the podium and the moment he leaves the podium will qualify. Applause before he reaches the podium or after he departs will NOT count. If JD Vance is not present for the address, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the 2026 address to Congress does not occur by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the official C-SPAN video feed of the address.